Tonight is the turning point for the GOP and the final four candidates seeking to challenge President Obama in November for the Presidency. (CNN is hosting the debate at 8pm.)
This week started with six candidates in South Carolina, we are now down to the final four. Jon Huntsman called it quits earlier this week endorsing Mitt Romney, and this morning Rick Perry shut down his campaign and endorsed Newt Gingrich. Jon Huntsman seemed to be the odd man out from the beginning of his presidential campaign failing to make the debate stage a few times due to lack of support, and if that isn't embarrassing enough, before ending his campaign he was polling below comedian Steven Colbert. (I'm serious.) Huntsman, although qualified and well spoken, was just never able to claim his space in the field and separate himself intellectually like Bill Clinton did in the early 90's.
Rick Perry was a different story all together. Perry entered the race after the Ames Straw Poll where he was a write-in candidate and received over 4% of the vote. People were asking him to run for President and when he entered the race he was immediately polling at pace with, or in front of Romney. If you can point to a single moment where his campaign was doomed it was early on when he froze during a debate with the eyes of the country on him. He never recovered from that moment and although he did for a while fight his way back into the mix ultimately it was too little too late. His debate performances has improved each and every time but it is very hard to regain momentum once it has faltered or stopped all together as his did with disappointing results in Iowa.
So now we are down to the final four. Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich. If Monday nights debate is any indication of what to expect tonight, then this IS it for the GOP. Newt picked up a monster endorsement (sort of) from Sarah Palin and from Rick Perry and has continued to dazzle in every debate. He knows his audience, understands his opponents positions, and uses both to his advantage routinely almost seemingly without effort. (It also helps that he is from Georgia.) Ron Paul is almost the exact opposite. I suppose Paul forget he was speaking to residents of a state which is home to the most military servicemen and servicewomen in the country! How did any of his advisers send him on stage with the greenlight to push his isolationism, anti-war, anti-military, golden-rule foreign policy positions? As I stated before, I believe Ron Paul will stay in this race to the bitter end (even if it damages his son, Rand Paul's political aspirations) and eventually run as a third party candidate similar to Ross Perot. Only this time, the independent candidate won't cost the GOP the election because Paul appeals to both ultra-conservative, and ultra-liberal Americans. He isn't quite down to the level of "side-show" although in South Carolina, that is how he appears.
The other two candidates, Romney and Santorum, have the most to gain tonight and also have the most on the line. This morning Iowa declared Santorum actually won the Iowa Caucus by 34 votes. Right now that doesn't mean anything because perception is everything and we are just two days away from the South Carolina primary vote. But, (this is a big but) from a historical perspective, Santorum and Romney split Iowa and New Hampshire, which makes South Carolina a rubber match for them, and the last stand for Newt. Romney is in poll position to win Florida at the moment and unless Santorum wins South Carolina outright with no questions he has no chance of fundraising enough money to keep pace with Romney. Ironically Newt called on both Perry and Santorum to drop out of the race and endorse him and let him challenge Romney. Perry took him up on that offer and Santorum may do the same without a convincing win in South Carolina.
I expect Romney to get attacked by both Newt and Rick Santorum tonight heavily. Romney will continue to focus on Obama but if he falters during the debate as he did on Monday night, it might give Newt or Rick the space they need to mount a push for votes from his supporters over the next two days. Newt will appeal to the audience and focus on big picture ideas while Santorum will state his positions on specific points and ask the other candidates to explain their position. Romney will have to be careful not too get far down in the weeds with Rick on issues or talk about lofty ideas that fall into the "hope and change" category which is where Newt will bait him, so he can return fire with claims that Romney is a moderate.
Tonight should be a very aggressive debate with Newt chasing new votes, Santorum hoping to keep pace, Mitt stonewalling and talking about Obama, and Ron Paul doing what he always does... entertain us.
