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| The GOP Final Four |
One week ago Mitt Romney had a comfortable lead in South Carolina, Jon Huntsman had just suspended his campaign, and Newt was preparing to swing for the fence in two debates or potentially risk having to call it quits. Fast forward one week and Newt had two amazingly strong debates, Mitt had two surprisingly weak debates, Rick Perry suspended his campaign, Rick Santorum (the last Rick) picked up some momentum, and Ron Paul is just as impossible to understand as he was before. All of this now becomes intensified as the candidates shift to Florida. In South Carolina the audience was largely military families with concerns about foregin policy and unemployment, in Florida, it's all about health care, ALL.
The audiences in Florida will be a mix of retirees, near-retirees, first and second generation immigrants, and snowbirds from the northeast who make their way south for winter. I expect we will hear a lot about the I-4 corridor which essentially decides the elections in Florida at every level. The candidates all have their work cut out for them, especially Rick Santorum who without a vast improvement in the polls will risk becoming more of a focus of Newt's attacks to force him out of the campaign (as he did with Perry).
This is what I expect to happen tonight:
- NBC as host - will target conservative values until we all want to vomit, they are not a credible news source and thus produce nonsense questions trying to intimidate and catch the candidates for a "gotcha" soundbite. Also, because nobody watches NBC (or any NBC network), the overall value of this debate to the national polls is minimal.
- Romeny - Mitt will focus on Obama and general election topics attempting to draw contrasts with the current president to remind people he's different than Obama too. Rick and Newt have challenged Obama openly and specificially where Romney hasn't. Santorum in every debate says "I am the sharp contrast to Obama and the liberals in Washington on family values, foreign policy, etc etc." Newt in every debate says he wants to challenge Obama (and the teleprompter) to a series of debates which will showcase his vast and deep knowledge of issues and allow people to hear for themselves what the candidates stand for. Mitt doesn't do either, he just says I'm different, but starting tonight he has to show it and explain it or he will lose Florida and he knows it. I wouldn't be surprised if we hear Mitt talk about his father a bit more tonight in an attempt to connect to first generation immigrants in the audience of Latin or Hispanic descent.
- Newt - Newt will do two things tonight... first he will attempt to diminish his opponents understanding of complicated health care issues and then will follow-up with his plans which include privatization and open market competition for America's healthcare dollars at individual and a federal level. Newt will also focus a bit more on Santorum in hopes of knocking him out prior to the Florida vote. He will attempt to marginalize his efforts as a Senator and remind people he lost by 18 points in his re-election bid, which happened to be in a swing state. (Romney may pick up on this as well knowing if Rick drops out it will boost his numbers too.)
- Santorum - The last Rick is going to come out swinging tonight and attempt to stay alive in Florida and get to the next wave of primary votes. Santorum is not doing good in Florida although his national polling numbers are going up which means his message is appealing and people are starting to recognize his name. Santorum needs at least 18% and a third place finish to stay alive past Florida and both are very much possible. He will need to remember he is in Florida and his ultra-conservative tone will need to be adjusted as such. Santorum will also focus on immigration, and talk at great lengths but the American Dream and how he is a living example of it. Rick is a down-in-the-weeds debater and will try to portray Romney and Newt as idea guys and not action guys. Rick will make a number of "DAY 1" promises to repeal legislation and possibly even a few "First 100 days" promises to show people that he has a plan and is going to implement that plan whereas is opponents don't and just say what they need to say for applause lines. This week is Rick's last stand. A poor showing in Florida may turn him into VP Santorum instead of potentially President Santorum.
- Ron Paul - Ronnie is my X-factor tonight. I'm really not sure what to expect from him once the curtains go up and the debate begins. I want to believe he will do well talking about reform and constitutional traditions however in Florida, his message just may not work. Although you'd have to think voters in his age bracket are inclined to listen to a guy their own age and not someone younger. Romney and Santorum are younger guys talking about healthercare for seniors. Newt and Ron can appeal to that demographic easier and even remind folks, they are old and understand the issues many in the audience are facing daily.
Thus far the results by state race (by my own simple calculation) show Romney is the candidate to beat, although his momentum is certainly declining while Gingrich is gaining as the other two remain rather steady.
-Romney: 2nd, 1st, 2nd --> Average of 1.67 --> Total Votes: 294,616
-Gingrich: 4th, 4th, 1st --> Average of 3 --> Total Votes: 282,727
-Ron Paul: 3rd, 2nd, 4th --> Average of 3 --> Total Votes: 160,877
-Santorum: 1st, 5th, 3rd --> Average of 3 --> Total Votes: 155,256
In all, I don't expect to learn too much tonight, but I do anticipate some fireworks and at least a few awkward moments.
