State of Delusion

Just a few observations from tonight's SOTU speech and the reaction/response speeches... but first, was anyone else reminded of the Lions vs 49ers game when Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz mixed it up after an awkward-slap handshake? The night started with PBO strutting into the congressional chambers and high-fiving his team (like Harbaugh did with his players) as if they had won something, pun intended, and finally when he makes it to the opposing team's head coach (Speaker Boehner) he hits him with this very aggressive, strange, rough handshake and mutters something under his breathe... difference is tonight we were reminded that Speaker Boehner and Jim Shwartz are complete opposites. One has rallied support, turned around a previously failed entity, and takes pride in his team... the other is Speaker Boehner.

1. PBO said nothing new that we haven't heard before including empty promises about "reform" but we did learn he is pro-amnesty for illegal college students
2. PBO promised to GROW the government and NOT make it more effective or efficent in any way
3. PBO was polarizing in his tone, not uniting and continued to use his new favorite word in every way possible... if your unaware, PBO is obsessed with the word: "fair"
4. PBO did not take responsibility for higher energy costs including his refusal to green-light the Keystone Pipeline (did you know gas on his Inauguration day was approx $2.01 a gallon.. what happened Mr. President?)
5. PBO did not acknowledge his administrations' failed (monster) investments in "green" companies like Solyndra, Evergreen, SpectraWatt, Mountain Plaza, Olsen Corp, Tesla, Fisker, etc, etc, etc --- what a scam! Not to mention the GM Volt has been a huge flop too!
6. PBO claims the only way to fund anything is to raise taxes
7. PBO keeps insisting we need "fairness" in a bazillion different ways but doesn't seem to understand that is the opposite of the American dream... my parents moved here knowing hard work would pay off for their family, not "fairness" at the hands of the government
8. PBO conveniently forgot to mention his government hasn't passed a budget in 1000 days... 1000 DAYS!! that means everything the government has done for the past 1000 days is not base-lined or prioritized based on any type of budget.. nothing, nada, zilch. 
9. Finally, PBO made no mention or specific recommendations on any program of substance including social security. I'm not surprised by this one, considering his GOP counterparts are in Florida right now and would use anything he said against him beginning tomorrow morning.

Now on the other side of the aisle, Mitch Daniels gave an excellent although lengthy rebuttal speech and I am happy to report he was able to locate the camera unlike his predecessors who seemed to be talking to outer space when she failed to find the red light. Doesn't he look like an older Peyton Manning? If he gets into the GOP mix, I think he can make a nice splash and provide yet another viable alternative to Obama for independents. Hermain Cain did a nice job as well and made it crystal clear "for us to be fair to some, means being unfair to others." Perfect and to the point without a 9-9-9 reference.

In short, the President launched his reelection campaign in prime-time and over the next week will visit 3 swing states and give 5 speeches. If anything the President said surprised you tonight, you need to pay more attention. And if you were surprised, well, he's a one-trick pony, so you shouldn't be anymore... he is the king of recycled talking points but still needs the teleprompter to deliver them.

Florida Debate Preview: 1.23.2012

The GOP Final Four

The debate tonight in Florida will be the first one ever in which the majority of candidates on stage will have at least one victory to their credit in the same election cycle. Santorum won Iowa, Romney took New Hampshire, and Newt won South Carolina.

One week ago Mitt Romney had a comfortable lead in South Carolina, Jon Huntsman had just suspended his campaign, and Newt was preparing to swing for the fence in two debates or potentially risk having to call it quits. Fast forward one week and Newt had two amazingly strong debates, Mitt had two surprisingly weak debates, Rick Perry suspended his campaign, Rick Santorum (the last Rick) picked up some momentum, and Ron Paul is just as impossible to understand as he was before. All of this now becomes intensified as the candidates shift to Florida. In South Carolina the audience was largely military families with concerns about foregin policy and unemployment, in Florida, it's all about health care, ALL.

The audiences in Florida will be a mix of retirees, near-retirees, first and second generation immigrants, and snowbirds from the northeast who make their way south for winter. I expect we will hear a lot about the I-4 corridor which essentially decides the elections in Florida at every level. The candidates all have their work cut out for them, especially Rick Santorum who without a vast improvement in the polls will risk becoming more of a focus of Newt's attacks to force him out of the campaign (as he did with Perry).

This is what I expect to happen tonight:

1. NBC as host - will target conservative values until we all want to vomit, they are not a credible news source and thus produce nonsense questions trying to intimidate and catch the candidates for a "gotcha" soundbite. Also, because nobody watches NBC (or any NBC network), the overall value of this debate to the national polls is minimal.
   
2. Romeny - Mitt will focus on Obama and general election topics attempting to draw contrasts with the current president to remind people he's different than Obama too. Rick and Newt have challenged Obama openly and specificially where Romney hasn't. Santorum in every debate says "I am the sharp contrast to Obama and the liberals in Washington on family values, foreign policy, etc etc." Newt in every debate says he wants to challenge Obama (and the teleprompter) to a series of debates which will showcase his vast and deep knowledge of issues and allow people to hear for themselves what the candidates stand for. Mitt doesn't do either, he just says I'm different, but starting tonight he has to show it and explain it or he will lose Florida and he knows it. I wouldn't be surprised if we hear Mitt talk about his father a bit more tonight in an attempt to connect to first generation immigrants in the audience of Latin or Hispanic descent.
   
3. Newt - Newt will do two things tonight... first he will attempt to diminish his opponents understanding of complicated health care issues and then will follow-up with his plans which include privatization and open market competition for America's healthcare dollars at individual and a federal level. Newt will also focus a bit more on Santorum in hopes of knocking him out prior to the Florida vote. He will attempt to marginalize his efforts as a Senator and remind people he lost by 18 points in his re-election bid, which happened to be in a swing state. (Romney may pick up on this as well knowing if Rick drops out it will boost his numbers too.)
   
4. Santorum - The last Rick is going to come out swinging tonight and attempt to stay alive in Florida and get to the next wave of primary votes. Santorum is not doing good in Florida although his national polling numbers are going up which means his message is appealing and people are starting to recognize his name. Santorum needs at least 18% and a third place finish to stay alive past Florida and both are very much possible. He will need to remember he is in Florida and his ultra-conservative tone will need to be adjusted as such. Santorum will also focus on immigration, and talk at great lengths but the American Dream and how he is a living example of it. Rick is a down-in-the-weeds debater and will try to portray Romney and Newt as idea guys and not action guys. Rick will make a number of "DAY 1" promises to repeal legislation and possibly even a few "First 100 days" promises to show people that he has a plan and is going to implement that plan whereas is opponents don't and just say what they need to say for applause lines. This week is Rick's last stand. A poor showing in Florida may turn him into VP Santorum instead of potentially President Santorum.
   
5. Ron Paul - Ronnie is my X-factor tonight. I'm really not sure what to expect from him once the curtains go up and the debate begins. I want to believe he will do well talking about reform and constitutional traditions however in Florida, his message just may not work. Although you'd have to think voters in his age bracket are inclined to listen to a guy their own age and not someone younger. Romney and Santorum are younger guys talking about healthercare for seniors. Newt and Ron can appeal to that demographic easier and even remind folks, they are old and understand the issues many in the audience are facing daily.

Thus far the results by state race (by my own simple calculation) show Romney is the candidate to beat, although his momentum is certainly declining while Gingrich is gaining as the other two remain rather steady.

-Romney: 2nd, 1st, 2nd -->   Average of 1.67 -->  Total Votes:  294,616
-Gingrich: 4th, 4th, 1st   -->   Average of 3      -->  Total Votes:  282,727
-Ron Paul: 3rd, 2nd, 4th -->  Average of 3      -->  Total Votes:  160,877
-Santorum: 1st, 5th, 3rd -->   Average of 3      -->  Total Votes: 155,256

In all, I don't expect to learn too much tonight, but I do anticipate some fireworks and at least a few awkward moments.

Romney vs. Three Non-Romney's

Tonight is the turning point for the GOP and the final four candidates seeking to challenge President Obama in November for the Presidency. (CNN is hosting the debate at 8pm.)

This week started with six candidates in South Carolina, we are now down to the final four. Jon Huntsman called it quits earlier this week endorsing Mitt Romney, and this morning Rick Perry shut down his campaign and endorsed Newt Gingrich. Jon Huntsman seemed to be the odd man out from the beginning of his presidential campaign failing to make the debate stage a few times due to lack of support, and if that isn't embarrassing enough, before ending his campaign he was polling below comedian Steven Colbert. (I'm serious.) Huntsman, although qualified and well spoken, was just never able to claim his space in the field and separate himself intellectually like Bill Clinton did in the early 90's.

Rick Perry was a different story all together. Perry entered the race after the Ames Straw Poll where he was a write-in candidate and received over 4% of the vote. People were asking him to run for President and when he entered the race he was immediately polling at pace with, or in front of Romney. If you can point to a single moment where his campaign was doomed it was early on when he froze during a debate with the eyes of the country on him. He never recovered from that moment and although he did for a while fight his way back into the mix ultimately it was too little too late. His debate performances has improved each and every time but it is very hard to regain momentum once it has faltered or stopped all together as his did with disappointing results in Iowa.

So now we are down to the final four. Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich. If Monday nights debate is any indication of what to expect tonight, then this IS it for the GOP. Newt picked up a monster endorsement (sort of) from Sarah Palin and from Rick Perry and has continued to dazzle in every debate. He knows his audience, understands his opponents positions, and uses both to his advantage routinely almost seemingly without effort. (It also helps that he is from Georgia.) Ron Paul is almost the exact opposite. I suppose Paul forget he was speaking to residents of a state which is home to the most military servicemen and servicewomen in the country! How did any of his advisers send him on stage with the greenlight to push his isolationism, anti-war, anti-military, golden-rule foreign policy positions? As I stated before, I believe Ron Paul will stay in this race to the bitter end (even if it damages his son, Rand Paul's political aspirations) and eventually run as a third party candidate similar to Ross Perot. Only this time, the independent candidate won't cost the GOP the election because Paul appeals to both ultra-conservative, and ultra-liberal Americans. He isn't quite down to the level of "side-show" although in South Carolina, that is how he appears.

The other two candidates, Romney and Santorum, have the most to gain tonight and also have the most on the line. This morning Iowa declared Santorum actually won the Iowa Caucus by 34 votes. Right now that doesn't mean anything because perception is everything and we are just two days away from the South Carolina primary vote. But, (this is a big but) from a historical perspective, Santorum and Romney split Iowa and New Hampshire, which makes South Carolina a rubber match for them, and the last stand for Newt. Romney is in poll position to win Florida at the moment and unless Santorum wins South Carolina outright with no questions he has no chance of fundraising enough money to keep pace with Romney. Ironically Newt called on both Perry and Santorum to drop out of the race and endorse him and let him challenge Romney. Perry took him up on that offer and Santorum may do the same without a convincing win in South Carolina.

I expect Romney to get attacked by both Newt and Rick Santorum tonight heavily. Romney will continue to focus on Obama but if he falters during the debate as he did on Monday night, it might give Newt or Rick the space they need to mount a push for votes from his supporters over the next two days. Newt will appeal to the audience and focus on big picture ideas while Santorum will state his positions on specific points and ask the other candidates to explain their position. Romney will have to be careful not too get far down in the weeds with Rick on issues or talk about lofty ideas that fall into the "hope and change" category which is where Newt will bait him, so he can return fire with claims that Romney is a moderate.

Tonight should be a very aggressive debate with Newt chasing new votes, Santorum hoping to keep pace, Mitt stonewalling and talking about Obama, and Ron Paul doing what he always does... entertain us.